Super Tuesday Elections

The Super Tuesday elections were a real mixed bag. McCain generally rolled over Romney, but his strength is in states that will likely go for the Democrats in the general election: California, New York, New Jersey. Huckabee cut into his opponents’ votes especially in the conservative South. He is all that is left for so called social conservatives, or people who want to tell others how to live their lives so they can feel saved. It is said, in the media, that Romney has a transparency problem, which is code words for saying that he does seem to a lot of people not to be telling the truth.

As for the Democrats, the picture is more complicated. Hillary did well in New York, New Jersey, California, Massachusetts as well as other states like Arkansas. Obama carried Connecticut, Illinois, and important states in the South and Midwest. She does well among older women and blue collar workers. Her ability to carry Hispanics, especially those more likely to watch Spanish language televisions, and Asians was critical to her election victory in California.
Someone said that in the Democratic contests it is a battle between those who drink Dunkin Donuts coffee vs. those who drink Starbucks.

That Sad Face Couldn't Get Thompson a Presidency

David Brooks of the New York Times has highlighted the work of Alexander Todorov of the Woodrow WIlson School at Princeton University who shows that rapid judgments of competence based solely on the facial appearance of candidates is responsible for the outcomes of gubernatorial elections senate and house about 70% of the time. Such rapid inferences influence voting choices. Tough news for those of us in public policy and political science.

Fred Thompson dropped out. After being hailed as another Reagan, he ended not with a bang but with a whimper. He was so tired looking that his debates and speeches were better than Ambien.

What this proves is that one must almost maniacally want to be president, which may not be good for the republic in the long run.

The Debate

The Tuesday debate of the three remaining democrats vying for the presidency, showed the candidates in poor light. Hillary came off as a vulture especially with Obama, he looked tentative and confused about the major issues especially medical care and Iraq, and white male John Edwards seemed ill at ease in South Carolina and in the debate.

Rudi has argued that he was saving himself; it appears now that what he was saving himself for (the big states primaries) have become increasingly populated by the Romneys and McCains of the world.

It is fun to watch the GOP candidates lionize Ronald Reagan, who was himself one of the great trimmers during his political career. Nobody can say that, but the record speaks for itself on abortion, taxes, civil rights and even dealing with the USSR.

How Will Hillary Carry the South?

For Hillary to beat Romney or McCain she must carry some southern states or more than 80% of the electoral vote everywhere else. What southern states can she carry that gore or Kerry didn't?

Giuliani has postponed his campaign rev ups. If he continues to postpone combat, people will forget him. His failing support in New Jersey is a good example.

New Hampshire: The Morning After

John McCain, war hero and maverick Republican senator, had been pronounced dead in his campaign for president. Now he has won a major victory in flinty New Hampshire overcoming Romney, Huckabee and Giulani. He has always run well in that state and he gave an impassionate and patriotic victory speech. Meanwhile. Hillary Clinton also overcame the pundits and talking heads and beat Obama. She apparently drew large numbers of women, a group that had somewhat deserted her in Iowa, and carried the large working class cities of Nashua and Manchester. As the nation slips into recession, the bread and butter Democrats are more likely to turn out over the inspirational Democrats. Clinton is the only major Democrat in the Michigan campaign; McCain and Romney will have a major battle there.

What the Iowa Results Mean for the Candidates

Iowa voters chose Governor Huckabee and Senator Obama in their caucuses tonight. In defeating Governor Romney, Huckabee won very substantial numbers of Republican fundamentalist Christians. Obama's victory was due to strong support of young Democratic voters in a state where the young are leaving in droves.

Now what is in store in New Hampshire? Senator McCain has resurrected his campaign and looks strong in the Granite State. Can Romney afford to lose there too? He will not carry South Carolina. Hillary has a strong national organization and lots of money, but the myth of invincibility is gone. In Iowa, at least people of both parties voted for change over alleged experience.